Hamas and the 2021 Palestinian Elections
Elín Huld Melsteð Jóhannesdóttir is a MECACS postgraduate student. Elín completed her undergraduate studies in Political Science and Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Iceland.
On January 15th, Mahmoud Abbas, President of the Palestinian Authority, announced that legislative and presidential elections should occur this year in Gaza and the West Bank. The upcoming elections are momentous, now in May 2021, Palestinians are set to return to the polls after 15 years. The elections will be the third parliamentary elections since the Oslo Accords. The last Palestinian elections took place in 2006, where Hamas won 74 seats out of 132. The victory came as a shock to Israel, as it was the first time Hamas participated and then managed to defeat the Nationalist Fatah Movement.
Hamas emerged as an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood in 1987 after the first Intifada. The Muslim Brotherhood is a religious, political movement that was founded in Egypt in 1928. On the other hand, Fatah was established during the anti-colonial period of the 1960s as a secular leftist liberation movement. Another main difference between Hamas and Fatah, which explains to a certain extent the resistance Hamas faced after the elections, is that Hamas is considered to be a terrorist organization by Israel, the US and the EU while Fatah is not.
After Hamas was sworn into office in 2006, Fatah and other Palestinian parties refused to join Hamas’ government. Subsequently, Israel stressed that they would not negotiate with Hamas unless it would recognize its right of existence and accept all prior agreements between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, and last but not least, stop all violence and terrorist activity. A few months later, in June 2007, a cruel civil war commenced between Hamas and Fatah, leading to the Palestinian Authority’s segmentation into two different political systems. Hamas took control over Gaza while Fatah remained in control over the West Bank. The outcome of the 2006 elections and the following events demonstrates the complexity within Palestinian politics.
Even though it is important to understand Hamas and Fatah’s ideological contrast, it is not enough to solely focus on the difference between the two leading parties when assessing the 2006 elections and the upcoming elections. Those analysing Palestinian politics also need to examine Hamas and the change within the organisation since 2006. The reason being that in May 2017, Hamas released a Document of General Principles and Policies suggesting that their position since the last elections has changed. Arguably, in the document Hamas attempts to be accepted as a rational player within the Palestinian political scene.
The document demonstrates a shift from a religious standpoint and utopian ideology to nationalism and a realist ideology. Hence, the focus on Palestinian nationalism in the document was clear. It had not been as evident in its previous documents. Likewise, Hamas portrays itself as an independent actor, with no resemblance to terrorist groups and most importantly, it indicates that Hamas is independent of the Muslim Brotherhood. Hamas also accepts the establishment of a Palestinian state within the 1967 lines, which is a major change from a total rejection of territorial compromise. However, it does not recognise Israel’s right to exist, nor does the document mention the end of violence against Israel. Even though a reformation has taken place within Hamas, some grey areas within the new document can be interpreted in many different ways, suggesting that the real nature of the group will not be changed.
The Israeli opinion on the different actors in Palestinian politics are very important, when it came to the new character of Hamas, the Israeli response to the document was drastic. Netanyahu released a video where he stated that the new Hamas document was fake news. He accused Hamas of lying to the world in a hateful document. At the end of the video, he shatters the document and tosses it in a wastepaper bin.
As Hamas and Fatah agreed on principles for the upcoming elections, it seems that Fatah has recognised Hamas as a rival. However, President Abbas had made promises that were not kept, mainly because of mistrust between Hamas and Fatah. Even though it might be different for Hamas this time, observers and many Palestinians are sceptical. Not only because of the mistrust but also because of concerns regarding the Palestinian diaspora not being able to vote brings up legitimacy questions. Another obstacle is Jerusalem. According to Palestinian officials, elections will not take place unless Palestinians in Jerusalem can vote. However, it is unlikely that the Israeli government will allow elections in Jerusalem.
Given that elections take place in May, the possible results of the elections still remain unclear. The poll that the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR) conducted at the end of March 2021, found that if the elections were held at that time, then a single Fatah list would win 43 percent of the vote; Hamas would win 30 percent; some 8 percent would vote for other factions and about 18 percent of voters were undecided. Khalil Shikaki, the director of PCPSR stated that it was clear that Hamas did not have a chance to have majority in the parliament, in addition to that he said that the most likely scenario would be a national unity government or a Fatah-led coalition including smaller parties. Even so, Shikaki emphasised that it was still too early to be certain as various unforeseen events could swing the publics opinion in favour of Hamas in the two months leading to the elections.
One might ponder, what a Hamas victory or a Fatah victory might mean for the West Bank and Gaza as these two have been split since the 2006 elections. However, it is important to note that the elections laws in Palestine have changed by presidential decree since the last elections. The laws changed from a combined national and regional vote to a single national vote based on the proportional system, meaning that history should not repeat itself. If the current law had existed in the 2006 elections, the Gaza-West Bank split caused by sanctions form the international arena, as well as several responses from Fatah should not have taken place.
In conclusion, even though Fatah has recognised Hamas as a participant in the elections, and despite the new document from Hamas suggesting a change of ideology, Israel has not accepted Hamas as a legitimate actor on the political scene. As a result, the political landscape has certainly changed since the 2006 elections, meaning Fatah might accept a Hamas victory. Nevertheless, if Hamas wins the elections, only time can tell whether Hamas will be accepted by the Israeli government and other international actors as a legitimate victor.
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