MECACS Hosts Lively Debate on Recent Georgian Elections and Protests
By Michael Land
Michael Land is pursuing an MLitt degree in St Andrews’s Middle East, Caucasus, and Central Asia Security Studies program. Prior to studying at St Andrews, he worked as a research assistant at a national security think tank in Washington, DC.
While headlines on the South Caucasus may have been dominated by developments Armenia and Azerbaijan for the past two months, Georgia’s parliamentary elections on October 31st and subsequent protests are set to have a major impact on the political trajectory of the state, the region, and indeed, the larger strategic tug-of-war between the West and Russia which has come to define Georgia’s position in global affairs since independence. Georgia’s incumbent ruling party, Georgian Dream has claimed the largest vote share, well ahead of its closest competitor, the United National Movement (UNM). The election was also the first under Georgia’s recently-enacted electoral reforms, which include a more seats elected via party list and fewer by regional constituencies, as well as a 25% “gender quota” for party lists, aimed at increasing the number of women in Parliament. The changes also included a lowering of the electoral threshold from 5%to 1%, allowing for more smaller parties to enter parliament, but potentially weakening more well-established opposition blocs which had long cleared the previous threshold.
Following Georgian Dream’s victory in the elections, opposition groups rejected the results and thousands protested in Tbilisi’s Rustaveli Avenue calling for new elections. Three days after the election, opposition parties released a statement announcing that they would boycott participating in the new Parliament and calling for the cancellation of the election results, new elections, and the elimination of “systemic electoral violations” at the Central Election Commission. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the US Embassy in Tbilisi assessed the elections were “competitive and, overall, fundamental freedoms were respected” but noted that “pervasive allegations of pressure on voters and blurring of the line between the ruling party and the state reduced public confidence in some aspects of the process.” Protests have since continued for over three weeks following the election.
MECACS hosted a roundtable discussion on Georgia’s elections on November 5th. In attendance were Georgia’s Former Minister of Defence and chairperson of Georgian NGO Civic IDEA Tinatin Khidasheli, former head of Georgia’s Parliamentary Research Service, Georgian Dream foreign policy advisor and 2020 parliamentary candidate Dr Giorgi Khelashvili, and political risk analyst and independent researcher Dr Elene Melikishvili. Chairing the discussion was St Andrews’s Dr Matteo Fumagalli with MECACS doctoral researcher Michael Cecire acting as discussant.
Dr Khelashvili began the first round of remarks with a positive review of the elections. The Georgian Dream candidate described the elections as an “important milestone” which marked Georgia’s transition from a “mixed political system” to a “parliamentary republic.” Khelashvili pointed to the high number of voters – the highest turnout Georgia has seen since 2012 – and Georgian Dream’s 48% of the vote share as evidence of a “landslide” victory for his party, comparing it to the results for Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Party in New Zealand’s recent election. Looking forward, he assessed that Georgian Dream’s agenda will be a continuation of the party’seight years in power, which he described as the “most stable eight years in Georgia’s history since independence.” Georgian Dream’s main policy objectives include NATO integration, growing Georgia’s GDP, furthering infrastructure projects to turn the country into an “east-west regional hub,” and judicial reform. By 2024, he predicted, Georgian will “formally knock at the European Union’s door,” and Georgia will meet 80% of requirements listed in Georgia’s association agreement with the EU.
While former Defence Minister Khidasheli did not challenge the legitimacy of the election results, she pushed back strongly on Khelashvili’s optimistic view of Georgia’s democratic progress. Khidasheli countered Khelashvili’s portrayal of Georgia’s electoral reforms by pointing to the 25% quota for female members in Parliament as an illusion due to the fact the law only applied to party lists, rather than the elected membership of Parliament itself, hence the actual number of women in Parliament is set to fall short of the 25% mark. She described the previous eight years of Georgian Dream’s control of government as having made Georgia’s situation “darker” with parties unable to communicate with one another without intermediaries. Khelashvili warned that continued Georgian Dream rule will lead Georgia down the path to a “one-party” state akin to Turkmenistan. She further criticized the decision of opposition parties to boycott participating in the upcoming parliament without new elections and asserted that the campaign echoes the legitimacy crisis Georgia’s government faced following parliamentary elections in 2008, which Russia took advantage of to launch its invasion later that year.
Dr Melikishvili raised similar concerns to Khidasheli, and likewise dismissed Khelashvili’s positive views of Georgia’s elections, accepting the results, but describing them as“disappointing,” adding “I do not think that over 40% support for a two-term ruling party is a good thing.” She attributed the poor performance of opposition parties to their lack of unity and lack of clear policies, as well as Georgian Dream’s strong financial backing from businesses.Commenting on the opposition boycott of taking seats in Parliament, Melikishvili stated “it is a mistake and an error of judgement” and that neither the government nor the opposition is leading by example and engaging with everyone to build trust and improve the situation.
Responding to the opposition’s actions following the election, Dr Khelashvili described the UNM as a “revolutionary” party by nature which is incorrigible and “stands far away” from traditional parliamentary practices. The protests were a “premeditated revolutionary endeavor,” he argued, as the outcome of the election was clear long beforehand from polling, but the protests are nothing more than the opposition “demanding victory.” Khelashvili further rejected Khidasheli’s warning of Georgia transforming into a one-party state pointing out that Georgia has already fought against authoritarian rule twice, in 2003 and again in 2012, and the current situation is “child’s play” compared to those previous crises of government legitimacy.
On the question of Georgia’s potential integration with the EU and NATO, there was significant debate between the three participants on the seriousness of Georgian Dream’s promises for further integration as well as how much credit Georgian Dream deserves for Georgia’s current agreements with the EU. While all three participants expressed their hope that Georgia would indeed accede to the EU and NATO, Khidasheli pointed out that this has been an aspiration of Georgian governments since the days of Shevardnadze and argued that Georgian Dream, like all previous governments, will fall short of fulfilling this promise. However, as discussant Michael Cecire pointed out, Georgian Dream had played a key role in undertaking the necessary reforms to accede to the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area with the EU and its accompanying Association Agreement, although the reforms were still a shared achievement between multiple political blocs. Such reforms had previously been off the table during the UNM’s more neo-liberal aligned government, which viewed the EU’s regulations as anti-competitive. Melikishvilicalled for Georgian Dream to listen to more stakeholders from outside the ruling party to encourage a more robust democracy in the country and make Georgian integration more attractive to the EU and NATO. She further assessed that Georgia’s foreign policy is “quite weak” and lacks “engagement,” citing the lack of any recent major speeches by Georgian leaders at global political forums, even despite a war between two of its neighboring countries. She concluded by emphasizing the need for Georgia to draw from its history and act as a “uniting force” in the region and build its profile abroad.
Georgia held its second round of elections on November 21st for seats requiring runoff races. Opposition candidates boycotted the runoffs, despite their names remaining on a ballot, resulting in a clean sweep for Georgian Dream of the 17 seats left to be decided. Protests have continuedin the capital, with no sign of opposition candidates reverting on their pledge to refuse to sit in the upcoming parliament. Parliament will be seated, either with or without opposition parties’ participation, for a term lasting until 2024.