Seminar Report – Dr Nargis Kassenova
Dr. Nargis Kassenova is a senior fellow and director of the Program on Central Asia at the Davis Center. Prior to joining the center she was an associate professor at the Department of International Relations and Regional Studies of KIMEP University (Almaty, Kazakhstan). She is the former founder and director of the KIMEP Central Asian Studies Center (CASC) and the China and Central Asia Studies Center (CCASC). Her research focuses on Central Asian politics and security, Eurasian geopolitics, China’s Belt and Road Initiative, governance in Central Asia, and the history of state-making in Central Asia.
This seminar was chaired by Dr Matteo Fumagalli, discussing the recent article by Dr. Kassenova published by National Bureau of Asian Research (2023), vol. 30 no. 2, 2023, p. 20-29. Project MUSE (https://doi.org/10.1353/asp.2023.0017.)“Central Asia’s Balancing Act.”
This report was written by Nara Mammadova, current MECACS intern and student in the Middle East Caucasus Central Asia Security Studies MLitt programme at the University of St. Andrews.
In this seminar, Dr. Kassenova shared her thoughts on the issue of Central Asian balance of power in light of changing geopolitical landscapes in the region. For the past three decades, Central Asia has faced shocks that rocked the region and shifted the status quo. At the start of the 21st century, with the dissolution of the Soviet Union, it was the forced independence brought upon the states. In the early 2000s, the region saw the changing military horizon in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, as well as an increase in US-Central Asian cooperation. Despite a positive start to 2022 for Russia with an opportunity to act out its role as regional security provider amidst Kazakhstan’s coup, the full-fledged invasion of Ukraine solidified the change in status quo, and diversified the major actors in Central Asia.
Image by David Moulder, Licensed under CC-BY-SA 2.0 DEED, 2017
With every shock, Central Asian states had to find a new equilibrium, adapt to the new situation and find a way to balance conflicting interests. The Central Asian Balancing Act is hugely dependant on balancing relations with Russia, namely by accommodating their interests and mitigating its sensitivities, whilst benefitting from what they can offer. Dr.Kassenova suggested that ‘Leadership Continuity and Change’ has had an effect on the continued Russian influence in domestic affairs of Central Asian states. This influence presents a double edged sword, according to Dr. Kassenova; strong ties with Russia give excessive political power to Moscow, but also help Central Asian leaders handle relations with Russia.
When discussing the changing patterns of UN voting on resolutions condemning Russia’s invasion and the humanitarian situation in Ukraine, Dr. Kassenova notes that Central Asian states are walking a tightrope. On one hand, they oppose threats to territorial integrity, but on the other, they feel obliged to maintain a certain level of goodwill with Russia. May of 2023 showed a critical discomfort from Central Asian leaders in interacting with Putin, despite their eventual attendance at the 2023 Victory Day procession.
The effects of the war on Russian-Central Asian relations have been mixed; whilst trade, energy negotiations and leader dealings have risen, there has also been a substantial outflow of Central Asian migrants and a decrease in Russia relations with CSTO, EAEU, and CIS. Big geo-economic changes such as the increase of sanctions in 2022, and the reduction of the China-Europe freight via Russia by 40%, further pushed Central Asia to seek a diversification of economic routes. Most notably, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Turkey have pushed for the development of the Middle Corridor.
Apart from the change in Russia-Central Asia relations, another important aspect is the development of inter and intra-regional relations. Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Central Asian countries have been increasingly looking at China is the more reliable and predictable power of the region. With the weakening of Russia’s position in Central Asia, Dr. Kassenova warns of the possibility that Moscow may change its approach to the region and choose to pursue a more selfish ‘instigator’ policy in the region, similar to what it practiced in the South Caucasus.Dr. Kassenova finalised the presentation portion of the seminar with the following answer to the question ‘Can Central Asian States Keep Their Russia Balancing Act?’. She highlighted that this is only possible if the Central Asian states can “modify their relations with Moscow without antagonising it”, and if they can “strengthen their sovereignty through improving governance at home, fostering regional cooperation and deepening ties with other powers”.